Scarlet & Violet · Sandwiches, outbreaks & eggs · Best odds 1/512
Scarlet and Violet hand shiny hunters more dials than any other game in the series: sandwiches, outbreaks, eggs and raids each roll their own numbers. The ceiling is 1 in 512 when the Shiny Charm, a Level 3 sandwich and a 60-cleared outbreak line up; the floor for raid hunters is a stubborn 1 in 4,103. Every Pokemon Scarlet and Violet shiny odds figure below matches the community rate tables for the current patch.
Locked to Scarlet and Violet. Switch on the boosts you are running — the Shiny Charm, your sandwich's Sparkling Power level, and how far you have cleared a mass outbreak — and the card turns them into odds for wild spawns, plus an average hunt length. Eggs and Tera Raids run on their own numbers; both are covered further down.
Base rate 1 in 4,096. Eggs use quirkier math: the Charm on its own skips a roll, so an egg with only the charm rolls 1 in 2,048 instead of the 1 in 1,365 a wild spawn would see.
Rates checked and stacked. The generator deals shiny-coloured Pokemon instantly — no sandwich timer, no outbreak counter — and if you are wondering how the older games compare, the hub has them all.
Reference
Wild spawns, outbreaks and eggs all build from the same 1 in 4,096 base, but each method adds its own rolls — and the game does not always add them the way you would guess. Sparkling Power contributes one roll per level, an outbreak adds a band at 30 cleared and a second at 60, and the Charm adds two. The table below is the one worth screenshotting.
| Hunt | Shiny rolls | Shiny odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild spawn (no boosts) | 1 | 1 in 4,096 | 0.0244% |
| Wild spawn + Sparkling Lv. 1 | 2 | 1 in 2,048 | 0.0488% |
| Wild spawn + Sparkling Lv. 2 | 3 | 1 in 1,365 | 0.0732% |
| Wild spawn + Sparkling Lv. 3 | 4 | 1 in 1,024 | 0.0977% |
| Wild spawn + Shiny Charm | 3 | 1 in 1,365 | 0.0732% |
| Outbreak, 30-59 cleared | 2 | 1 in 2,048 | 0.0488% |
| Outbreak, 60+ cleared | 3 | 1 in 1,365 | 0.0732% |
| Outbreak 60+ / Charm | 5 | 1 in 819 | 0.1221% |
| Outbreak 60+ / Charm / Sparkling Lv. 3 | 8 | 1 in 512 | 0.1953% |
| Tera Raid encounter | fixed | 1 in 4,103 | 0.0244% |
| Egg (no boosts) | 1 | 1 in 4,096 | 0.0244% |
| Egg + Shiny Charm | 2 | 1 in 2,048 | 0.0488% |
| Egg + Masuda Method | 6 | 1 in 683 | 0.1465% |
| Egg + Masuda Method + Charm | 8 | 1 in 512 | 0.1953% |
Raids sit at a fixed 1 in 4,103 — the 32-bit seed behind each raid is slightly worse than the wild rate, and the Charm is ignored inside them. Every other figure on this table comes from the same datamine the rate trackers publish.
Mechanics
Three systems do the work in Paldea: sandwiches, outbreaks and breeding. Here is how each behaves, and why raids sit outside all of them.
A sandwich made with Herba Mystica grants its Sparkling Power for thirty minutes, and each level adds a roll to wild spawns that share the sandwich's type — one, two or three. Sandwiches do not reach eggs, and they do not apply inside raids. The working recipe for a hunt: build the sandwich around your target's type, eat it at the outbreak you have already cleared, and keep an eye on the timer.
A mass outbreak spawns like ordinary wild life until you start clearing it. Thirty knockouts add a roll, sixty add a second, which takes a bare outbreak to 1 in 1,365 by itself and to 1 in 512 once the Charm and a Lv. 3 sandwich join in. Defeating or catching both count toward the total, and only the outbreak's own species moves the counter — knockouts elsewhere do not register.
Breeding keeps its own arithmetic. A plain egg rolls 1 in 4,096; add the Charm and it lands at 1 in 2,048 — not the 1 in 1,365 the same charm gives in the grass, because of a roll the game skips whenever a bonus is active. Masuda Method eggs from two language-tagged parents roll six times for 1 in 683, and Masuda plus the Charm reaches 1 in 512. Tera Raids ignore every part of this: each normal raid is fixed at 1 in 4,103, and event raids can switch shinies off per species.
Rarity
Scarlet and Violet lock nearly everything the story hands you, and the list is longer than in older games: the four Ruin legends (Wo-Chien, Chien-Pao, Ting-Lu and Chi-Yu), the Loyal Three, Koraidon and Miraidon, Ogerpon, Terapagos, the Titan rematches, Gimmighoul outside its event raid, the scripted first encounters, and every Snacksworth legendary from the Indigo Disk. What stays huntable is the ordinary wild — every spawn and outbreak on the map — plus raid shinies when a seed lands your way.
In practice
Odds set the price; hunts are paid in attempts. Each row below translates a headline Paldea rate into two counts: the one by which half of hunters are finished, and the one only a stubborn hundredth ever passes.
| Your shiny odds | Median hunt (50%) | 99% of hunters by |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 4,096 (full odds) | 2,839 encounters | 18,861 encounters |
| 1 in 1,365 (Charm, wild spawn) | 947 encounters | 6,287 encounters |
| 1 in 683 (Charm + Lv. 3 sandwich, or Masuda eggs) | 474 encounters | 3,144 encounters |
| 1 in 512 (Charm + sandwich + outbreak) | 355 encounters | 2,358 encounters |
Sandwiches expire, outbreaks end and eggs hatch in batches — the encounter counts ignore all of that and count pure rolls. For a time estimate at your own pace, set encounters per hour in the calculator above.
FAQ
Breeding has its own ladder. A plain egg rolls 1 in 4,096; the Charm alone lifts it to 1 in 2,048; the Masuda Method rolls six times for 1 in 683. Masuda with the Charm is the best egg rate in the game at 1 in 512, and no sandwich helps — Sparkling Power does nothing for eggs.
Neither. Sandwiches only reach wild spawns and outbreaks, and raids ignore boosts of every kind — a Tera Raid is fixed at 1 in 4,103 no matter what you carry into it. Raids are for species that will not spawn anywhere else, not for better odds.
The Charm, a Lv. 3 sandwich and a 60-cleared outbreak on the same species — that is the 1 in 512 rate, and the fastest realistic setup on this page. Eggs with Masuda and the Charm reach the same ceiling at a slower pace per attempt, which suits hunts you can leave running.
No. Normal raids roll 1 in 4,103, slightly worse than the wild base rate, and the Shiny Charm has no effect inside them. The only reason to raid for a shiny is that some species, like Gimmighoul during its event, are raid-only — and event raids can disable shinies entirely, so check the listing first.
On a wild spawn, 1 in 1,365: the charm adds two rolls to the base of 1 in 4,096. It then stacks with everything else — an outbreak, a sandwich, or a Masuda breeding pair, where the same charm is half of the 1 in 512 egg ceiling.
Everything the story hands over: the Ruin legends, the Loyal Three, the box legendaries, Ogerpon, Terapagos and the Indigo Disk's Snacksworth set. Gimmighoul is locked except during its limited event raid. Ordinary spawns and outbreaks always can shine.
For contrast, the Pokemon Legends: Z-A Shiny Odds page shows a newer stack ladder topping out at 1 in 585, while the Pokemon Sword and Shield Shiny Odds page covers the Dynamax Adventure era — and for full-odds stubbornness, Pokemon Brilliant Diamond & Shining Pearl Shiny Odds stakes everything on a radar chain. The Pokemon Shiny Odds hub lines up every generation from Gold and Silver onward, and the blog's Pokemon Shiny Odds Explained covers why the base rate only moved once in series history.
Pair a hunt with a plan: the Pokemon Team Picker builds six-Pokemon squads for the result, and the Random Pokemon Picker narrows a shortlist to a single target when the hunt list gets long. In a hurry? The generator above skips the grind.
Random Pokemon Generator